Should we be worried?
Techno Talk
Mark Nelson
Probably not. But you should at least be concerned, which is a different matter, and it certainly makes
sense to take a prudent attitude. The subject is of course the global silicon shortage.
I
f electronics is an educational
and rewarding pastime, then it ought
to be something that we enjoy doing
without gloomy thoughts, Nevertheless,
I feel there’s a subject that needs to be
mentioned, even if it’s not desperately
cheerful! The trick, I find, is to treat this
as a challenge rather than a problem.
Foreboding
Whether you’re into electronics as a
hobby or a profession (maybe both), you
must have read with some foreboding
about the growing silicon shortage and
wondered how it might affect your hobby – and even disrupt your employer
if you work in an industry reliant on
semiconductors. Passive components
are less at risk, but a slowdown in silicon production has led to a four-fold
rise in the price of silicon. This and
the effects of Covid-19 on workforces
in the chip-making industry, economic
conditions in China, a fire in a critical
Japanese IC factory and even climate
change are all making it unlikely in
the short-to-medium term that we’ll
be able to buy chips and transistors
at the low prices that we’ve all been
enjoying over the last decade.
The silicon that’s in particularly short
supply is the kind of high-end processors used in desktop computers, laptops,
gaming consoles and automobiles. The
kind of chips used in the projects described in this magazine are less likely
to be hit (but it does happen). However,
that’s not the whole story. Manufacturers
may decide it’s more profitable to prioritise production towards chips that
are intrinsically more lucrative than the
‘bread and butter’ parts we use. The supply chain may also put the high-value
semiconductors at the front of the queue,
and when you see the news stories of
truly mega snarl-ups at international
shipping container ports, you might
wonder when on earth these backlogs
will be cleared.
Think ahead
The price we’ll pay in the future for
electronic components is bound to rise,
and not only because of the factors just
8
mentioned. Interest rates have been low
for several years, but mounting levels
of inflation will likely change this.
Inland and international distribution
costs have already risen rapidly and it’s
likely that electronic component suppliers will apply price increases across
the board, not selectively. Some firms
may freeze prices on existing stocks
in their warehouses, but I wouldn’t
bank on it. More worryingly, it may
turn out that some manufacturers and/
or distributors may decide that it’s no
longer economic to make/stock parts
for which there is declining demand.
This is where things get tricky, so
it’s time to think strategically and plan
ahead. If your next construction product uses any obscure or hard-to-find
components, now would be the time to
divert your funds into buying as many
of these as you think you may need –
plus a few more. If (like me) you run
a spare-time nano-business producing
specialist electronic products for customers, it would be prudent to stock
up now rather than later for parts with
no obvious alternative – not only for
silicon, but also plastic enclosures and
optical displays.
Perils of sourcing unobtainium
Unavailability caught me out a couple of years back. The product that I
make happens to use what I thought
was a very ordinary op amp that
would be made for ever… and beyond. Little did I know that it was in
fact an ‘end-of-life’ product and the
only UK distributor with stocks was
Farnell, who had about 70 of these critters left. Needless to say, I bought the
lot. I still look for them occasionally
on eBay and recently bought a dozen
from a seller in Poland at a ridiculously
low price. Usually, however, sellers are
asking sky-high prices for them. My
most recent order went to a dealer in
China, who took my money but never
sent the merchandise. I reported this
to eBay, who instructed the seller to
refund my money. Indeed he did, but
only 25% of the amount I had paid.
According to eBay, the case is closed
because a refund was issued. You win
some, you lose some!
There used to a business in London
called The Semiconductor Archives,
which, despite the somewhat forbidding aspect of their premises (https://
bit.ly/pe-feb22-tt), had a remarkably
eclectic and comprehensive range of
ancient transistors with the added bonus of being happy to handle small
orders. Firms of this kind still exist in
Britain and indeed globally. One that I
have used with complete satisfaction
is Component Sense in Scotland. On
their website you can find the device
you need and the number of units in
stock (www.componentsense.com).
However, they are not very keen on
selling single items and have a minimum order value.
Steer clear of retreads
The busy road behind my back garden
leads to an industrial estate, with plenty
of heavy-goods vehicles using it 24/7.
It’s not just the air pollution that worries me but also the number of lorry
tyre treads scattered along the roadside,
looking like skins cast off by snakes.
Obviously, they are from remoulds,
which are evidently not as reliable as
the cost-cutting fleet operators imagine they are. Cheap semiconductors
are frequently not a bargain either, as
this commentary I found on the Web
explains (enjoy the English-not-as-first
language – to be fair, it undoubtedly
puts my Mandarin to shame!).
A lot of this kind of chips are from
older PCBs and de-soldered and recreate the surface to make it can be resell
on the market. It’s a huge industry in
Guangdong, China, where you can find
a lot of the fake/retread chips. The price
of DS3231 retread chips is less than 0.1
to 0.2 USD after been cleaned, plating the legs, and recreate the surface
marks, and of course if they can send
it to you via Hong Kong, the int-mail
price can low down to started from 1
USD. That is why you can find a lot of
the sellers who can give you the price
like $2, even with the free shipping,
from Hong Kong.
Practical Electronics | February | 2022
